Co-sponsored by the Departments of English, Economics, Political Science, and Statistics and the Institute for Cyber Law, Policy, and Security.
From election forecasts to Wall Street trading to sports analytics, prediction has actually gotten worse when computers generate it. The “Uses and Abuses of Prediction Seminar Series” highlights how prediction shapes our outlooks and decisions—and why it falters.
Textual Speculations: How Generative AI Predicts the Next Word, April 19, 2023
With the contrast between human and AI writing as a framing device, Annette Vee traces the ways that prediction has operated in generative AI and other historical attempts to automate writing.
Automating Early Warning: The Possibilities and Limits of Predicting Conflict, March 28, 2023
Christopher Rauh and Hans Mueller showcase the approach to conflict forecasting used for conflictforecast.org that leverages the power of machine learning and natural language processing.
Predicting Well-Being in the Real-World and Real-Time: Possibilities and Challenges, January 31, 2023
Using a dynamical systems approach, Dr. Saida Heshmati demonstrates Ecological Momentary Assessment and other field-based designs, ecologically valid measurement tools, and the analysis of intensive longitudinal data to uncover the complexities of individualized social and behavioral dynamics that shape health and well-being.
Algorithms in Criminal Justice, December 8, 2022
Megan Stevenson is an economist, criminal justice scholar, associate law professor, and professor of Economics at the University of Virginia.
The Art and Science of Election Polling, October 18, 2022
G. Elliott Morris is a staff data journalist and US correspondent for The Economist. He writes about American politics, public opinion polling, demographics, and elections. Michael Colaresi is the William S. Dietrich II Chair of Political Science and the research and academic director of Pitt Cyber, as well as the director of the Pitt Disinformation Lab.
Expertise and Bad Predictions: How Can We Do Better?, September 13, 2022
Gayle Rogers is an Andrew W. Mellon professor and chair of English at the Dietrich School Special Liaison for Outreach and Development. He is also an affiliated faculty with the Global Studies Center, Center for Latin American Studies, European Studies Center, and Cultural Studies program.